Job Market Is Broken—Developers Are Panicking
Here’s What They’re Getting Wrong
Everywhere you look, developers are panicking. Layoffs, AI fears, bootcamp grads flooding the market—some even say it’s the worst time ever to be a developer.
But is it really? Let’s break it down.
What we really have
I want to talk about the current state of the market and shed some light on a particular aspect: the human, aka the developer. Even though there are other economic problems and circumstances, you should never forget that the only thing you can genuinely manipulate is yourself and your decisions.
Is the current situation though? Yes.
Is it the toughest I have ever seen? Lol, no.
Let’s tackle Resistance, Fallacies and Biases today. Your arch enemies you might not know, yet.
We have beginner developers complaining that finding the first Junior role is impossible.
We have developers complaining they cannot find the next role after the first role ended.
We have experienced developers complaining that younger developers from bootcamps flood the market.
The next one is complaining about the decline of job postings—as this would be a real KPI 😀
You know what I see very rarely? People who really understand their value, status quo and what’s necessary to do to get to the next milestone—aka your next role.
So, what are the real issues developers struggle to find jobs? Let’s talk!
Understand the stages - Trainee, Junior, Mid & Senior
If you have never heard of the trainee phase or you think this was the boot camp, then we have identified the first big issue.
The beginner phase—Year 0–3
When I started my professional life, it was customary to have formal job training, whether at university or at a job site. This training lasted between 2 and 4 years, but it was absolutely necessary to get a job—And it wasn’t a bad idea at all.
Career Changers were also possible, and often started way below typical Junior salaries, and it wasn’t the standard.
⚠️ A bootcamp today, doesn’t count as a fill beginner phase.
Understanding that at least your first two years of deliberate work are pre-junior is essential. This phase is all about learning, not earning!
Companies often see you as an investment—aka a financial burden, so make it count when you get this chance!
🍪 In many western countries, this state was called the Apprentice.
The Junior phase—Year 3-5
After some years of deliberate training, you have achieved social and practical competency to start your professional journey. You become even, which means you are neutral regarding balance for your company.
Real talk: You aren’t a burden but helpful in several ways. Let’s be honest: This is primarily a supporting role—an assistant role for experienced colleagues. If you think otherwise, you overestimate yourself, even with modern AI tools. The reason is quite simple: there is way more than coding that you might not see yet.
This is where you start to earn real money, but you must have social and practical competencies, which means you must be able to contribute actively to a team.
If you don’t have that, the company won’t see you as a valuable person, no matter how good you get along with your direct peers. So many developers don’t find a job after being laid off when not performing in the first Junior role—that’s very dangerous for your career when staying employed.
⚠️ As an employee, you are bound to your CV. It will be a part of you. Don’t mess up early. And I mean by that, you need to be competent enough to contribute to a team and product from the company's perspective; not yourself!
If this is the case, give it a try. You need to dive into cold water. If you aren’t ready, which is most often the case in the first year, find a company where you can finish the trainee/apprentice phase.
🍪 I strongly recommend spending the first two phases with humble learning. Don’t aim for high salaries, because most who do end up with nothing. The real value comes in the following phases.
The Mid-Level phase—Year 5–8
Here we are, today we contribute positively to our team and product.
These developers no longer have the competency problem; we have some other prominent fallacies due to a very specific problem: the global market and social Media.
Welcome to mid-level reality, where X, LinkedIn, and Hacker News fuel our delusions. Let’s break down the 10 salary fallacies you (yes, YOU) might be falling for:
1. Survivorship Bias: “Everyone I see online makes $300K at Meta!” …Yeah, the developers making $85K at an insurance company aren’t posting salary flexes.
2. Availability Heuristic: “MAANG salaries are normal, right?” Nope. You just keep doomscrolling posts from the 1% while ignoring the silent majority.
3. Anchoring Bias – “I deserve $400K because some guy on Twitter said he got it!” Cool, let’s just ignore stock options, location, and the fact that he probably has 15 years of experience.
4. Dunning-Kruger Effect – “I’m pretty sure I could work at Google!” Maybe, but so do 300,000+ other devs who also think that.
5. Social Comparison Bias—“My college friend just got into Amazon; I must be underpaid!” Maybe… or maybe they grinded Leetcode and interview techniques for six months straight while you were optimizing your home office setup.
6. Ignoring Market Economics – “Why can’t every company pay me FAANG money?” Because your SaaS startup makes $3M a year, not $300B.
7. Neglecting Cost of Living Adjustments – “$300K at Meta sounds amazing!” Yeah, until you realize a one-bedroom apartment in SF costs more than your kidneys.
8. Recency Bias – “FAANG salaries are still skyrocketing!” Oh, you missed those layoff waves? Google and Meta sure didn’t.
9. Optimism Bias – “I’m different! I’ll land that FAANG job soon!” Hope is nice, but grinding system design interviews are better.
10. Confirmation Bias – “Everyone agrees that mid-level devs should make $300K!” Of course, because you’re only reading r/Overemployed and tweets from FAANG recruiters.The Senior—Year 8+
Yes, not every mid-level thinking in that extreme fallacies, but we clearly have a negative taint on the market. Developers often overestimate themselves and even choose to be unemployed instead of picking a role with a lower salary or maybe not 100% of the expected business domain. But that’s a starting point.
You need feedback and continuous deliberate work to progress in your life. It takes time and discipline. I won’t be a cake walk, but it’s possible.
👉 Broadening your opportunities by not aiming for your dream job today. Make this a long-term goal and pursue it. Adjust your current value, lower it if you can’t land a job today. You will increase your chances to get another role, which might not be the greatest, but you will learn and progress. Without that, you will keep complaining.
The Senior Phase 8+ years
This phase is already different. If you cannot land a job as a senior today, I highly recommend that you check whether you are an actual senior by competency. Let’s be honest with ourselves and ask what’s wrong.
It should be pretty easy to find a job.
You should be technically good enough to land a Senior or Mid-Level role.
You should have enough social competency to convince in interviews.
You should be able to mentor junior developers instead of just doing everything yourself.
You should know how to debug, optimize, and refactor at a system level, not just fix tickets.
You should be able to work with business and product teams without sounding like an annoyed Stack Overflow post.
You should have professional resilience—job changes, tech shifts, and company pivots shouldn’t break you.
You should be able to say “no”—not every new framework or hype train is worth your time.
You should not be job-hunting like a junior, mass-applying without strategy. You should be targeted and prepared.
You should be able to articulate your value, not just list years of experience on your CV.
Are you 100% sure these things apply to you?
Yes?
👉 I mean yes in the sense that OTHERS say that about you?
If you believe in yourself, it’s important, and tells me you can make. But you need to change something, as we all need to. Learn what the Delta is between your state today and the desired state. But remember: You will never be in the final, perfect state. That doesn’t exist. Delete that from your brain. You shoot yourself in the foot.
The Job Market Always Fluctuates
Of course, there are many reasons why developers struggle to land jobs and others do so quickly. And, of course, we have an economic crisis. You can read about it everywhere in the news.
This wasn’t the first time, this won’t be the last time.
The absolute vast majority of developers I know personally in Germany are employed. In fact, I don’t know a single unemployed person in my home country.
⚠️ Devs with the most problems finding the next role are in my experience:
Age 55+ transition into modern thinking and compete with a massive wave of younger generations of developers who have new ideas and are convincing founders and CEOs.
Pre-Juniors, who determine themselves as Fullstack Devs
(Which they aren’t; no discussion here and I recommend to follow this advice since other employers will think the same)Junior Devs failed on their first 1–3 roles in the first 1.5 years due to overestimating their skills and underestimating the challenge.
🍪 The best advice I can give here:
Understand yourself and your current competency critically.
Reduce your own evaluation to prevent overstimation.
For Seasoned Seniors:
Understand the current needs flow and Zeitgeist. What worked 20 years ago, might not be convincing to the newer generation CEOs / CTOs.For Pre-Juniors:
Understand that you have a long journey ahead of you. Play for the long run and become a solid developer before asking for high salaries. Years 1–5 are for learning, not earning!Don’t focus on getting a job; focus on becoming so valuable that people want you for a role. Are you as worth as that? If not, work on exactly that. That’s your reality, that’s my personal reality every f****g day. You get used to it 😀
Some facts for 2024 / 2025:
We have more developers on the market than ever before.
We have more demand for developers than ever before.
We have the least trained junior-level on average to date.
We have AI distorting the idea of how we learn and become better.
We have AI catapulting people into the Junior Role.
(Which doesn’t work obviously)We have companies’ CEOs trying to replace automatable tasks with AI.
We tend to lean towards automation and low-code / no-code solutions as SaaS.
We still have a substantial traditional SMB sector looking for human developers.
We have a lot of startups looking for real Juniors.
There is potential. Are you good enough?We have a lot of traditional companies who offer IT / Dev apprenticeships. Especially in Europe 🇪🇺
By the way: it’s not only the developers who had a hard time. Times like these happen. Steel yourself for the next one and start today.
My first Salary was €16,500 gross yearly, that was around the threshold to poverty, way below the German 🇩🇪 standard; but that was Okay, I was a bloody beginner.
Today I belong to the top 5% in Germany and I was never part of a enterprise company :)
Btw. you can do the same. Become a Learner, then you will become a earner.
🍀 There Is Light At The End Of The Tunnel
Work on yourself; the demand is there. AI expectations will clearly settle and become a great tool, not your Nemesis. Make sure you become competent enough to work and master your craft. I really mean that, focus on becoming better every day.
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Employment Growth Projections: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that employment for software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers will grow by 17% from 2023 to 2033, significantly faster than the average for all occupations. This equates to approximately 140,100 job openings each year over the decade. 1
Current Employment and Wages: As of the latest data, about 1,656,880 software developers are employed in the United States, with a mean annual wage of $138,110.2
Global Developer Population: Worldwide, professional software engineers have grown from 21 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2022, highlighting the field's rapid expansion. 3
So, My Conclusion:
The market isn’t doomed. But if you’re struggling, it’s time to take control. Focus on becoming valuable, not just getting hired. Learn, adapt, and position yourself for success. That’s what separates those who thrive from those who panic.
By the way, you aren’t alone, believe me. I have trained many apprentices, guided a lot of devs and helped seniors to become cornerstones. Get a free introduction call to find out if you should have a mentor or not. You can find me on MentorCruise.com
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151252.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_engineering